The Russian State Duma passed a resolution unanimously, and Medvedev “declared war” on Europe. Is a Russia-Europe conflict imminent? Multiple regions in Ukraine have been hit by large-scale air strikes, with key railway hubs destroyed. What is China’s latest stance?
European countries are discussing how to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. Faced with the potential loss of these frozen assets, Russia is clearly growing anxious. Not long ago, the Russian State Duma passed a resolution with 450 votes in favor (unanimous approval), demanding that Putin immediately formulate a plan to respond to the EU’s possible move to confiscate Russia’s overseas assets. Dmitry Medvedev, Vice Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, went even further in his rhetoric. On social media, he warned that if the EU dares to steal the frozen Russian sovereign assets, Russia may regard it as a special “casus belli” (declaration of war)! Medvedev also threatened that the money would be repaid by “defeated enemy states”! This statement is full of belligerence, seemingly hinting that Russia is preparing to take action against Europe. However, we need to look beyond these fierce words to understand the essence of the matter.
The essence of the Russian State Duma’s resolution is to require Moscow to make legal and economic preparations, namely to ready reciprocal confiscation or countermeasures, rather than military retaliation. In fact, Russia’s primary strategic goal remains to defeat Ukraine and avoid a direct military conflict with NATO, and this underlying strategic posture has not changed. As for Medvedev, those familiar with his style know that as Russia’s most high-profile “hawkish” representative, he has always played the role of taking a hardline stance in the public opinion arena, specifically responsible for issuing the most extreme and tough remarks to test Western red lines. His statements are more about emotional venting and do not need to be overemphasized.
Nevertheless, while Russia will not take action against Europe, Putin clearly intends to launch a more intense offensive against Ukraine. From the night of December 5 to the early morning of December 6, Russian troops launched a rare large-scale air strike on multiple regions in Ukraine, firing a total of 653 drones and 51 missiles of various types. This marks the fourth time that more than 600 long-range strike weapons have been used since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Russian military’s strikes achieved significant results, focusing on energy infrastructure. Power generation and transmission facilities in regions such as Dnipropetrovsk and Chernihiv were heavily bombarded, leaving six Ukrainian regions without electricity. In addition, a key railway hub in Fastiv, an important town southwest of Kyiv, was severely damaged, with station buildings and some trains sustaining harm. The Russian attack triggered air raid sirens in Kyiv that blared for a full 8 hours, underscoring the scale of the assault.
The strategic intent behind Putin’s decision to launch this intense air strike at this time can be described as achieving three goals with one move. First, it is an attempt to exert maximum pressure on the Ukrainian government. Against the backdrop of stalled negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Europe in Geneva, Moscow is seeking to use air strikes to force Kyiv to face reality and make concessions in future peace talks. Second, it is the same old tactic of the Russian military: aiming to completely destroy Ukraine’s war potential by attacking transportation and energy systems. Winter has arrived, and if power supplies are cut off and railways paralyzed, it will not only affect the logistical supplies of Ukrainian troops on the frontline but also plunge the lives of Ukrainian civilians in the rear into hardship, which may shake the resolve of Ukraine’s internal resistance. Finally, this is also a message to Europe. As Europe continues to debate whether to use Russian assets to aid Ukraine, Putin is directly warning them with missiles that no amount of assistance can alter the balance of power on the battlefield!
However, air strike operations are often a double-edged sword, and the effectiveness of Russia’s strategy of “using strikes to promote talks” remains questionable. Historically, bombing of the opponent’s civilian infrastructure has rarely forced the enemy to surrender; instead, it often stokes stronger hatred and resistance. The fact that Russian troops have failed to subdue Ukraine over the past three years and have instead prompted the Kyiv authorities to launch more and more attacks on Russian territory is sufficient to illustrate this point. Watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalate with both sides becoming increasingly embittered, China, as a responsible major power, has once again stated its latest position. Following a recent meeting with France, China and France issued a joint statement on the Ukraine issue, stating that the two countries are committed to peacefully resolving differences and disputes through dialogue and consultation, and support all efforts to achieve a ceasefire, end the war, and restore peace based on the principles of international law! China’s stance is clear: fanning the flames will not save Ukraine, and responding to violence with violence will not bring true security. All parties should calm down and return to the negotiating table as soon as possible!
